Punch-Drunk Wolves

Bowties were the look, last night. H/t Stephanie, Patrick J’s wife, for this collage.

[We decided to do a running diary of last night’s draft. This started about a half hour before the draft began, and it ended around the time Orlando drafted Sabonis at 11 and quickly traded him to OKC. At that point, it still seemed like a Kris Dunn/Jimmy Butler trade was imminent. Over the weekend, we’ll digest all that emerged from last night — most significantly, the reports that Ricky Rubio’s days in Minnesota might be numbered. For now, enjoy the live reactions to the draft, outlined below. -AG]

Andy G: We’re both watching this draft on our respective couches, fully equipped in Minneapolis and Pittsburgh with Twitter, ESPN, and cold beverages. Let’s do a live diary from now (apprx 6:25 CST, 35 minutes until draft time) until after the Wolves pick at 5. (Or until they trade, or whatever they do.)

Wolves Twitter is an uneasy place right now. Woj is at the wheel, telling us that we’re taking Buddy Hield if Kris Dunn is off the board. He’s also saying that Rubio’s name is coming up in trade talks. Ian Begley from ESPN says that the Wolves dangled LaVine and the 5 for Jimmy Butler.

Are we going to recognize the Timbewolves roster beyond Wig & KAT tomorrow?

Patrick J: I hope so. It took this long to get to where we are, which isn’t so bad.

Andy G: Booing Adam Silver just seems wrong.

Patrick J: Booing Adam Silver should be a crime of some sort. #CasualObservation

Andy G: They’re showing ‘96 Draft footage. That was the most excited I’ve ever been about the Wolves. Turns out maybe keeping Shuttlesworth would’ve been the right play. Kevin McHale and 8th Grade Me had no way of knowing.

Patrick J: I wanted Marbury then too. Still probably would, against my better judgment. Will we be thinking the same about Ben Simmons (for the 76ers) or for whoever the Twolves pick at #5 tonight? (Eds. Note: Patrick J is weaving between his keyboard, saag paneer takeout, and beer. Even the most ambidextrous might have trouble with that combo.)

Andy G: BEN SIMMONS! I think I’ve been over-thinking the Ben Simmons question marks. He’s a pretty awesome talent.

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The highest praise that I can think of for this Thunder-Warriors matchup — and I guess I’m thinking about tonight’s Game 6 more than anything — is that I cannot even decide how to best experience it.

Whether to invest emotions into the outcome is a starting point. For reasons I can’t explain, I’ve been cheering for OKC in these playoffs. I loved seeing them take down the Spurs, and I have enjoyed even more how they’ve been upsetting these incredible, 73-win, defending-champion Warriors. I could make up a rationale about wanting to see Durant validated with a ring, or something about Westbrook being the best live entertainer in the league (which is true), but I think the truth is that I just tend to cheer for the best team that hasn’t won it yet.

Sports fandom at this level has an inherent ridiculousness to it, and it only gets dumber when people try to rationalize their feelings. But one problem with caring too much about whether the Thunder win, or the Warriors win — setting aside the risk of being upset if things don’t go your way — is that by doing so you forfeit the simple experience of witnessing history play out with clear eyes.

That might mean focusing too much on officiating, or whether a certain elbow or kick is worthy of a Flagrant 1 or 2. It might mean chalking up Steph Curry’s on and off struggles to injury, or perceived uncalled fouls instead of thinking about, and observing how this is the first time he’s been seriously tested since becoming the world’s top player. It might mean, depending on how things shake out, missing the moment when Durant takes that title back away from him.

There is so much going on in this series to fascinate hoops junkies:

• Splash Brothers
• Thunder’s switching defense, which might be Curry’s Kryptonite
• Small ball vs Offensive rebounding
• Draymond Green teetering on the line between intense and insane
• Westbrook also teetering on the line between intense and insane
• Durant being amazing
• Durant being decidedly less amazing when Iguodala is checking him
• Steve Kerr’s trust in his bench
• Dion Waiters inexplicable giving Billy Donovan new hope that he can trust his bench too
• How should (or shouldn’t) the Warriors defend Andre Roberson?
• Steven Adams
• Steven Adams and Draymond Green

The list could go on.

I don’t mean to suggest that cheering for one team or the other means going blind to all of the basketball greatness. But attention is a resource and it’d be a shame to waste too much of it on things that don’t matter very much. The best basketball in the world is going to be played tonight, and I plan to do my best to enjoy it for that reason alone.

But I’m also gonna be pissed off if the Thunder blow this chance to close on their home court.

We now know where the Wolves will be drafting on June 23rd. Well, unless there’s a trade between now and then. Or a trade on draft night.

Anyway, the Wolves landed 5th overall last night in the lottery. They had the 5th worst record in the league, and the draft order went right in line with reverse league-wide rankings. For the first time ever, the draft order disregards the usual jumble of the lottery format.

About as soon as the order was announced, the takes started coming in hot. Jim Souhan of the Star Tribune immediately published a column that calls for the Wolves to draft Buddy Hield, the Oklahoma Sooner who won over the hearts of college basketball fans this past season, winning Naismith Player of the Year honors. Chad Ford published his 7th Mock Draft (!) — first after the order was known — and has Minnesota drafting Kris Dunn from Providence. Dunn is a point guard, and Ford speculates about a future Ricky Rubio trade. (Without such speculation, the choice makes little sense.)

As I write this, Twitter is running hot with takes about trading the pick. Maybe the pick gets packaged with Gorgui Dieng, or Shabazz Muhammad, or even Zach LaVine (or some combination of the three) to land a bigtime veteran like Jimmy Butler. I’ve been teasing the idea of “LaVine and the 5 for Boogie Cousins” for months, while realizing that is a long shot.

The main point is, with the fifth pick, there are countless ways that this could play out. After Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram, there is no consensus about who ranks third best, fourth best, fifth best, and so on. The Wolves do not have any clear idea right now about who will be available to draft at 5, and they will undoubtedly survey the league between now and draft night to discover any intriguing trade offers that might arise.

I think there are a few basic guidelines they should try to follow when making decisions with this prized asset that is the fifth pick in the 2016 draft:

• If you trade it, only trade it for a star.

Along with the whole, “it’s your best chance of adding a star” thing, a lottery pick has value because it gives the team an opportunity to  hold a good player’s rights for 8 or more seasons.  You do not give that up in exchange for a veteran role player via trade who only has 2 or 3 years left on a contract before they either: 1) are no longer any good, due to age and injuries; and/or 2) decide to leave via unrestricted free agency.

You don’t give it up, that is, unless you are getting somebody good enough to justify it. When Boston traded away the 5th Pick (became Jeff Green) for Ray Allen in 2007, that was great for them. Allen was a star. They already had Paul Pierce and Al Jefferson (and quickly flipped Big Al for KG, even better!) and they were able to win a championship and build a mini-dynasty in the East.

Less cool was when the Wizards (led by Flip) traded the 5th Pick to David Kahn in exchange for Randy Foye and Mike Miller. The Wiz wanted to win now, and the move backfired. Whether Washington would have used it on Ricky Rubio like Kahn did, or Steph Curry, the decision to trade the pick for veteran role players proved to be a terrible one.

The Wolves will have a ton of cap room to target role players this summer. They should not use the fifth pick to land one.

• Do not draft a player to fill a short-term need. Especially shooting.

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