Another season begins on Wednesday night at Miami, so let’s get into it.
Tim Connelly did what Tim Connelly does, which is remake the non-fringe part of his roster, with the players and at the time that nobody expects. Win 56 games games and contend for a championship? Bye bye KAT. Advance in the playoffs a couple more consecutive seasons, even amid major injuries and facing the Nuggets? See ya Julius and Naz.
In comes LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga and expectations that are… not all that different?
Right now Google says the Wolves over/under is 48.5 wins. That’s a half game below what they won last year, and a half game below what they won the year before that. If Wolves fans were told right now that the team would win 48 or 49 games this year, it would be something of a pitcher of cold water dumped on all the preseason hype. And yet that’s the expectation.
Let’s go through the basic scenarios, starting with the relatively boring one; the one where they are about the same as they’ve been in recent years past.
If the Wolves turn in another 6-seed-ish season (and let’s just assume an ordinary amount of health and injury here) it’ll probably look something like this:
LaMelo Ball spurred a little bit more ball movement and upped the aesthetics, but struggled to cope with opponents bodying him up with physicality, and the Wolves lacked a sufficient secondary outlet for playmaking when Melo dished it to try to kickstart movement. Ant averaged 26.5 points on 47% shooting, 39% from three. His assists dropped a bit to 3.2 per game, and his turnovers stayed at 2.9. Rudy made 2nd Team All-Defense. Jaden didn’t make any All-Defense, nor did he sniff the All-Star Team, but he was a solid 3rd option, and averaged an efficient 14 points per game with barely any free throws attempted. Kuminga struggled and was in trade rumors by January. Ayo was fine. Neither Shannon nor Clark could earn Finch’s trust. Joan was a year away. The team was fine. They won when Ant got hot or the opponent was resting guys. Maybe they dialed things up in the playoffs again, maybe not. It was a respectable season.
If the Wolves fail, it’ll probably look something like this:
The frontcourt was weak, missing the size and stability of a KAT or Randle. Rather than getting a Towns putback or a Randle 12-foot fadeaway to stop bleeding, they got a 41-foot brick from LaMelo with Ant loafing back on defense the other way. LaMelo missed 40 games, Point TJ was no longer facing the Nuggets “they’re all bad defenders” lineup, and Joan was unable to reliably sub in for Rudy, even in a limited rotation spot.
Okay, most fun, and this is most definitely in play — if the Wolves outperform expectations, it’ll probably look something like this:
In some way/shape/form, the Wolves embrace the modern trend of clutch-and-grab defense. Maybe Finch finds religion on Jaylen Clark’s value, here. Clark could play for OKC or San Antonio – he should play for us, too. Maybe Ant backs up the tough talk heading into this season, and uses the new energy reserves owing to Melo taking over playmaking, and goes hard as a defensive pitbull. Maybe Kuminga embraces the opportunity to reinvent himself and move his career arrow upwards towards something closer to Andre Iguodala and farther from Derrick Williams (!). LaMelo is a transformational offensive player, and that means not only initiating stuff with some pace and pep, but having a strength with the ball with his back to the basket, in a Jason Kidd sort of way. The Wolves need a stable point guard – they just do. Unless you’re deep in the weeds with people who know their stuff, it doesn’t seem like Mike Conley’s importance to the 56-win team is appreciated enough. The drop-off to 49 wins was not due to losing KAT, or something about Julius. It was because the 56-win team had a not-washed Conley to orchestrate things in a way that allowed both Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert to be very good versions of themselves almost all the time. If this years Timberwolves team is a great one, it will have little to nothing to do with “moodiness,” and by that I mean Randle’s departure. It wasn’t Randle’s fault that Ant didn’t play defense last year, I’m sorry to report that if that’s news to you. If this year’s Timberwolves team is a great one, it will be because guys were forced outside of their comfort zones, and it was LaMelo Ball who did it. He took the basketball, and reshaped the orientation of the floor and the game for everyone else. For Ant that means better defense because he has less things to focus on. For Rudy that means a more consistent supply of threatening offensive position, such that he gets a few more lobs, and defenses then react and everything becomes easier for everyone. If this season is a great one, it will be because LaMelo Ball came in and made it so.
How likely is that?
I have no idea, but I’m as excited as you are to find out.
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