Punch Drunk Wolves

If you type “mediocre” into thesaurus.com, the main results include “inferior, middling, second-rate,” and “uninspired.” Another result is “decent.” If you click on “decent,” there are multiple different usages. One of them is “as in respectable, appropriate.” Another is ” as in sufficient, tolerable.” Spin can make two objectively similar things seem almost like polar opposites. Some glasses are half full; others half empty.

An NBA basketball team that wins a game for each one it loses, and loses a game for each one that it wins, finds itself subject to a range of potential reviews. Factors bearing on potential approval of average performance include the objective and intangible. More measurable would include: age and experience of the roster; how the team performed last year; recent offseason moves – especially if future assets were traded to “win now;” and the whether the team is progressing or regressing over time. Less objective factors would include: teamwork and chemistry, versus selfishness; effort and hustle; fun personalities or other distinguishing character features; and any controversial front-office moves that affect the fans’ feelings toward the team.

Timberwolves History has several examples of teams that won approximately half their games. Some of those squads were celebrated, while others were reviled. Let’s take them chronologically:

GOOD .500 — 1996-97

The first playoff team. Not only the first playoff team, but the first team that won even 30 games. This was Stephon Marbury’s rookie season, Flip Saunders’s first full season as head coach (he and McHale ushered Bill Blair out of his job the previous year, after just 20 games, in a premeditated coup), and the first season in which the Timberwolves had All-Star Game representation; Tom Gugliotta was voted in as a reserve, and Kevin Garnett – just two years out of high school – was added as an injury replacement. This team started off slowly, but picked up steam before and shortly after the All-Star Break, leading to an avalanche of positive press coverage in February 1997. Steve Aschburner wrote a number of stories for the Star Tribune around that time, describing the improved vibes around the team (important context was not only the play of present Timberwolves Marbury/Googs/KG, but also the recent departures of Christian Laettner and especially JR Rider) and the excitement of being a team that might win half its games. Writing for City Pages then, Britt Robson wrote a fantastic story “Chemistry Majors,” February 26, 1997. (Eds note: I would link it if I could, but I can only access it via Star Tribune archives pdfs, which include Britt’s work for City Pages.) About basketball “chemistry,” Robson himself wrote, “The word has become meaningless from repeated abuse by lazy analysts, for whom it’s a conveniently nebulous way to explain why a team is doing better or worse than expected. But a team’s chemistry is vital precisely because it is a tangible, dynamic thing.” He then quoted Flip with a nugget that I know (as a dedicated reader of Britt’s) he has repeated in several other stories over the years: “Chemistry is mostly about developing an established pecking order.” Flip got more specific: “Last year, we had different guys fighting to be top dog; some of them felt they were at the head of the pecking order no matter what you did to show them it wasn’t that way. Then things don’t work and you get into petty jealousies.” Some important context there was the team’s recent trade activities — when the dust settled after a flurry of moves, they had effectively traded away Laettner (who immediately became an All-Star in the same Feb. ’97 with the Hawks), Rider (the team’s second most talented player) and Ray Allen, all for Marbury and James “Hollywood” Robinson. Even at the time, with Marbury excitement running high, it was apparent that a great deal of talent had gone out. “Chemistry” was therefore an important PR point. Whatever the precise causes, the ’97 team was extremely fun, exciting, and — relative to expectations — successful. They ended up 40-42, but made the playoffs in a weak West.

BAD .500 — 2004-05

For a couple of reasons, some Wolves fans this year have been bracing for a repeat of 20 years ago. One of those reasons is that both the 2004-05 and 2024-25 Timberwolves were coming off the only playoff runs in team history. It’s a natural comparison point. Add to it the controversial KAT trade, immediately before training camp, and detractors of the trade have been getting out ahead of anticipated disappointment, by predicting “2004-05 all over again.” Robson has hardly obsessed over the comparison, but he did mention the ’05 club in his preseason piece for MinnPost. Wrote Robson: “The only other time this franchise came into a season fresh off a pair of playoff series victories, Latrell Sprewell was haughtily rejecting a three-year contract extension just three days before the team’s home opener in 2004-05, setting in motion a toxic chain collision of distraction and disillusionment that would force the firing of coach Flip Saunders after 51 games, while the Wolves fell out of the playoff picture for the next 13 years.” The ’04-05 team won a few more than half its games (44-38) but failed to make the playoffs in a strong Western Conference. The disappointment was spectacular, and things got progressively worse for the next several years, culminating in the KG trade to Boston and the many “re-re-rebuilds” that followed.

GOOD .500 – 2011-12

Ricky Rubio and Basketball Joy. Yes, I know. This team did not finish .500 or even close to it. In the lockout-shortened, 66-win campaign, they finished 26 and 40. But relatively deep into that season, they were a couple games above .500 (21-19 after 40 games) and playing the most exciting brand of ball anyone had seen in a while. March 9, 2012, was Minnesota’s Night That Will Live in Infamy. You know what happened and I don’t have to retell it here. I don’t want to retell it here. Shit, you even remember the Muskies jerseys we were wearing, the “white-out” t-shirts in the stands, all of it. Anyway, before March 12, that team was so much fun. Rick Adelman sitting in the seat previously burned up by Rambis and before him Wittman. Competent coaching, smart and overachieving team defense, and an absolute wizard creating all of the offense. Expectations heading into that season were very low, even with Rubio’s arrival and the attendant excitement to see him play after two long years of waiting. The previous year’s team won 17 games and lost 65. Aside from Rubio — barely 21 years old, on arrival — offseason player acquisitions were minimal, unless you count Derrick Williams. Larry Bird gave a rare interview to Bill Simmons in February 2012. About the Rubio-led Wolves, he said, “I watch them all the time,” describing Rubio as “one of the best passers I’ve ever seen,” and even suggesting Ricky might bring back the passing of the 1980s NBA that he felt was lost somewhere along the line. The ’11-12 Wolves started the season 0-3, but two of those losses were down-to-the-wire home games against the eventual Finals teams, the Thunder and Heat. Rubio looked incredible in both of them. Fans were on their feet with a minute to go, finally cheering against LeBron James and Kevin Durant. When the team started to actually win games, it was even better. The entire experience was incredible.

BAD .500 – 2013-14

The pressure was on now. After the exhilaration of Rubio’s arrival came the shock of major injuries. First Ricky’s knee. Then Love’s knuckles. Then Chase Budinger’s knee. Then Brandon Roy’s knees. (Wait, that last one was pre-existing?) David Kahn was finally relieved of his job duties. Flip Saunders returned as President of Basketball Operations; the post from which McHale fired him 8 years earlier. Veteran players were signed. Perhaps most importantly, K-Love was in the third year of the infamous four-year Kahntract; the one where Kahn gave him a three-year opt-out as an olive branch for not giving him what at the time was the one-per-team five-year max deal. The first few games of that season were incredible, with Love almost routinely chucking those 70-foot outlet bombs to streaking Corey Brewer for dunks. The league decided to scout that out of the team’s base offensive go-to action, unfortunately. That Wolves team had an outstanding, highly-tuned halfcourt offense. Kevin Love operated at the top of the key as the hub. Rubio, Brewer, and Kevin Martin would wheel around him, while they mixed in backdoor cuts, and Nikola Pekovic low-post seal moves for crisp high-low action. The problems with that team, that sadly limited them to disappointing .500 ball, were twofold: (1) On defense, while they were smart and would try to “wall up” to avoid unnecessarily fouling, they lacked the athleticism to consistently address spread pick-and-roll sets. Other teams could exploit the slow feet of Love and Pek. (2) On offense, the combination of crisp team execution with sprinkles of effective flopping for cheap whistles would always dry up in the 4th Quarter when you just need superior talent to generate some tough shots down the stretch. Adelman tinkered with trying JJ Barea over Rubio. It did not work, but when it’s cited as a mark against Adelman by historians it should also be remembered that Rubio’s deficiencies probably necessitated the experimentation. In any event, that season grinded along without any winning streaks sufficient to cause real playoff hopes, and also without any losing streaks sufficient to just give up altogether. They finished 40-42, when a lackluster effort (especially by Love) in the season finale against a bad Utah Jazz team at Target Center cost Adelman the dignity of a .500 season in his final one as Hall of Fame coach. Love requested a trade shortly after the season ended. He was obliged when the Andrew Wiggins opportunity emerged.

BAD .500 AND THEN GOOD .500 – 2022-23

This one is freshest in our minds, even if it sort of feels like an eternity ago; separated by all of last season’s success. The immediate results from the Rudy Gobert Trade were borderline catastrophic. Through 21 games that team had 10 wins and 11 losses against a very soft opening schedule. They had yet to earn a single “impressive” win by that point, a quarterway through the entire season. The Towns-Gobert Twin Towers experiment was simply unworkable on offense. KAT suffered his calf strain injury in Game 21, which would put him on the shelf for the next 52 games. Up to that point, the Twin Towers offensive rating was 106.6. For that entire season, the league’s worst offense was Charlotte’s 108.4. It is hard to describe how bad, and how slow, that Wolves unit looked, when both Towns and Gobert shared the floor. It seemed as if the trade was possibly a huge mistake. Bill Simmons and Ryen Russilo made a Timberwolves Punching Bag out of their weekly podcast, as the team struggled to even win half its games after trading away so much of its future flexibility and potential, in all those unprotected draft picks. But then, KAT got hurt and suddenly two things immediately improved: (1) The team, now heavily featuring playmaker Kyle Anderson, had a palpable chemistry that was not there with Towns; and (2) Expectations dropped, pressure was relieved, and suddenly it was much more palatable to win about half the games. The team’s first impressive win of the season came immediately after the Towns injury, in Game 22 versus a very good Memphis Grizzlies team. Suddenly, it seemed as if Chris Finch could coach again, rather than appease. The team, even diminished in raw talent, had “chemistry.” Flip Saunders might say it suddenly had a “pecking order,” as Anthony Edwards ascended statistically in KAT’s absence, and earned his first All-Star berth. Towns returned late in the year, and the Wolves competed admirably against an unbeatable Denver Nuggets team in the first round of the playoffs, maybe laying some groundwork for the successful season that followed.

THE CURRENT .500

With Monday night’s loss at Atlanta, the 2024-25 Timberwolves are 14 and 14, square at .500 basketball. I don’t have to explain to Punch-Drunk Wolves readers that this is deep into BAD .500 territory. The team is fully healthy. The roster is expensive. It is also loaded with proven talent. The schedule has been soft. The “chemistry” certainly exists, but not in a good way. There’s a reaction brewing that’s going to end very, very badly if changes don’t come.

Chris Finch has two very clear reasons to start making big changes with his lineups and overall approach. The first is that the status quo is absolutely diseased. This is apparent to anyone paying a modicum of attention to this product. The second is self-preservation: if he doesn’t fix this, it will be his job.

The team has no reliably consistent means of initiating ball movement. Any offense that has both Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels cramping the spacing is going to require some delicate coordination and execution. When Mike Conley was on the last legs of his prime, that was sometimes possible. Now that he’s a bit beyond that stage of his career, the team needs Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle to carry the playmaking torch. While either of those All-Stars can be a heavy lifting producer, neither is adept enough to be the actual or even de facto point guard of this offense. The Wolves do not need to be an elite offense to win – their defense is good enough to carry them, most nights. But their offense needs to be “decent,” and it cannot be self-destructive. Thus far, the Wolves offense has too often been subpar and very self-destructive.

Finch should make a change to his starting lineup, just to see if something else might work. Most fans would endorse subbing Naz Reid for Julius Randle. Setting aside the significant risks that brings to the front office flexibility (if Randle’s value goes in the tank, we can expect his unhappy self to opt in for his $31 Million option, next summer) it is nevertheless worth a try. They need to find better spacing, particularly as Ant continues to struggle and show frustration. A different idea would be the one I would try: sub in Donte DiVincenzo for Jaden McDaniels. The starters would still have plenty of defense on the floor with Rudy leading the way, and DDV might thrive next to the starters as a floor-spacing shooter more than he does coming off the bench, tasked with more playmaking responsibility. Another idea would be to get Nickeil Alexander-Walker in the starting lineup, if nothing else than a merit-based reward for being the only player on the team to play up to (and beyond) anyone’s reasonable expectations. I would personally resist that temptation, mostly because NAW is a natural bench player, succeeding with change-of-pace energy as much as the poise more often required of starter, go-to guys.

If lineup tweaks do not work, then Connelly must make a trade. They cannot afford to drift lifelessly into a .500 season as Ant enters his prime and they give away another unprotected draft pick to Utah. Find a point guard, ditch some of the toxic chemistry in this particular locker room. Like with the ’96-97 team, they might get a lot better even if a trade results in a talent drop.

If both of those things fail, then I’m afraid Chris Finch will meet the same fate as 2005 Flip Saunders did. Coaches sometimes have a shelf life. Larry Bird famously said that in his view it was just 3 years. It is possible that Finch has lost the locker room. That does not always mean the players dislike or “tune out,” the coach. The messages just might grow stale, and a fresh voice is needed to inspire different outcomes. But, before the above steps are taken — at least one major lineup change, and – if that fails – at least one major roster change — firing Finch would be unfair and rash.

While the NBA suffers an apparent drop in TV ratings and most everybody agrees that a contributing factor is the season length, there can be a silver lining in that excessive length. The Wolves, despite all of this horror, still have FIFTY FOUR games to go. That’s like two full college seasons. If they play them well, they’ll finish well over .500 and we can chalk up November and December to a rough stretch. But some type of change has to happen, or else a hard rain really is going to fall on this franchise and fanbase.