Remainder of the Finals Prediction

I don’t do a lot of predictions here because, well, I know that nobody really cares about them.

But here goes:

Miami is going to win every one of the three upcoming games in San Antonio and at least two of those wins won’t be close.

The Spurs have a brilliant system that consistently cranks out 50 to 60 wins and moderate levels of success in the playoffs. But in the years since Tim Duncan’s prime ended, that’s all they are: a very good — sometimes great — “system.”

The Heat are plenty principled themselves; a well-coached team stacked with talents and veteran smarts. But perhaps more importantly, the Heat can improvise. If you watched how last night’s second half unfolded, you saw this stark difference on clear display. Whereas the Spurs have spots they want to get to, LeBron James is a threat to create a dunk or wide-open three the moment that he crosses the half-court line.

As Earl Monroe says, “That’s what it’s about in basketball: being able to get from one spot to another on the court.”

Chris Bosh’s ankle looks like it’s coming around, Spoelstra is bound to start staggering Wade and James a bit more to open up the half-court and there will just plain old be too much LeBron.

I’m going on the record with Heat in 5.




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7 responses to “Remainder of the Finals Prediction

  1. From your fingertips to God’s ears, my friend. I too think the Heat will win, but I think SA can get one at home. The Heat have a gear the Spurs can’t get to, and they’re doing this without an effective Dwayne Wade and a passably effective Chris Bosh.

  2. Dave A.

    The most fun I’ve had watching professional basketball was when the CBA had teams in Rochester, MN. The CBA awarded a point for winning a quarter and three points for winning the game. League standings were based on points (seven possible per game). I’ll be watching the fourth quarter in each playoff game, the quarter that counts. I’ll go with the Heat in seven but the organization I admire is SA.

  3. Yo Any, This is your uncle Eric – so you know what I am about to say. You have always had too much admiration for raw individual talent – which the Heat does have in abundance. However, you also have too little regard for what the Spurs have in spades. The Spurs use what I’ll call the “5-5” approach to basketball. That is, they realize that a team has 5 players that can be used to advantage on both ends of the court and their players and coach use all 5 inches of that grey matter that resides between their ears. And, of course, they have a point guard that can break up any defense. Home court advantage is also big. My prediction is that the game will go back to Miami with the Spurs up 3 to 2. What happens then, even your know-it-all uncle can’t say.

    • Eric–
      I respect the Spurs plenty, but like last year when Oklahoma City — the more individually-talented team — “figured them out” I think the same will happen with Miami this year. This Heat team with Wade/James/Bosh has had two types of vulnerability in its time together: Wade-James chemistry issues (each needs the ball to create for himself and others), and Chris Bosh injuries (hip last year nearly led to Heat losing to Pacers and Celtics, this year ankle nearly led to Heat losing versus Pacers).

      As long as D-Wade will defer heavily to LeBron, and Bosh is healthy, I think the overwhelming talent differential will trump the Spurs’ mighty-impressive team chemistry.

      I’ve never really rooted for either of these teams and I think the matchup is fascinating. But after watching Game 2 I just think it’s going to be heavily one sided for the remainder. As a fan who’d like to see as many games as possible before summer arrives, I’d be happy to be wrong.

      On a different note, I hope the weather is better where you are than in your old hometown. We’ve hardly seen the sun in 2013.

  4. Dave A.

    One never knows from game to game. Hard to win on the road. Heat should win one at SA and return home. Heat in seven, unfortunately.

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