The headline narrative surrounding the Timberwolves is that they have piled up a bunch of wins versus weak opposition, but struggled against good teams. Against a relatively soft early-season schedule, the Wolves are now 15-8 after beating the LA Clippers on Saturday night at Target Center. That was their fifth victory in a row, on the heels of consecutive road wins at New Orleans and – before those – home wins versus the Spurs (sans Wemby) and Celtics. While 15-8 is only good for 6th in the West at the moment, it’s a 53-win pace. If the Wolves win 53 games, nobody will be disappointed. In the win/loss column, things are going just fine.
A subplot thus far has been the shaky play of the bench. With Donte DiVincenzo starting over Mike Conley, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker gone to Atlanta (where he’s thriving…) Wolves brass clearly contemplated some new-and-improved bench pieces, for sure including Terrence Shannon Jr. and hopefully including Rob Dillingham as well. Chris Finch, more than most Wolves viewers at this point, continues to have unshaken belief in Mike Conley’s place in a regular rotation on the wrong side of age 38.
The bench play has been poor, and let’s just dive into the on/off numbers:
When TSJ is on the floor (191 minutes) the Wolves are being outscored by 19.0 points per 100 possessions. For reference, last year the worst team in the league (Wizards) had a net rating of -12.2. When Rob’s on the floor (213 minutes) the net rating is -6.6. That’s really bad, even if not as cartoonishly terrible as Shannon’s.
The eye test isn’t doing much to allow for excuses and explaining these numbers away. Shannon’s an offense-first player who only has one usable hand. League scouting seems to have made this discovery, and all too often Shannon’s barreling toward the hoop with a footwork sequency just begging him to lay the ball in with his right hand. Unable to do so, he either resigns himself to getting swatted away with a lefty attempt, or presses the panic button and tries some form of contorted jump pass – hopefully not to the other team. His confidence is shaken.
Rob has lost his juice. If he entered the league with too much confidence, now he’s gone too far the other way. The Idea of Rob involves a super-quick guard with elite handles and a knack for getting buckets off the dribble. After 18 months of Finch tutelage and discipline, we’ve somehow ended up with a guy who’s making 34.8 percent of his shot attempts, but weirdly plays pretty feisty defense. (His per-36 steals are up from 1.4 to 2.5.) The second best thing that could’ve happened this year was a big leap from Rob where he seized the starting point guard spot for now and forever. That hasn’t happened, not even close. I think there’s a pretty good chance that he’ll be traded shortly after December 15.
The first best thing that could’ve happened this year? Well, that obviously would’ve been an Anthony Edwards Leap into the top tier category of MVP candidacy, and that’s the other part of the season’s quarter-pole narrative.
Let’s revisit the on/off net rating stats for a moment. If the bench is bad, but the team record is good, then it stands to reason that the starters must have good plus-minus stats. That’s very much the case. Donte leads the way at +9.6. Rudy’s next at +8.7. Julius and Jaden are just behind them at +8.0 and +7.9, respectively. Last season, the Thunder had the best net rating at +12.7, then the next couple were +9.4 (Boston) and +9.2 (Cleveland) then the Wolves were actually a distant 4th at +5.0. So these Wolves-starters net ratings are reflective of great performance.
The drop-off to Ant is what’s noticeable. When Ant’s on the floor the Wolves outscore by 4.1, and – notably – when he’s off, the team actually plays 2.2 points better, with a net rating of +6.3. No other starter is even close to this situation. The net rating differentials among the other four are +13.0 (Donte), +12.0 (Randle), +11.9 (Rudy), and +8.1 (Jaden). With 4 of the starters, the team plays between 8 and 13 points per 100 possessions better when they play, versus when they sit. With Ant, the franchise player, they’re actually 2.2 points worse when he’s on the floor. That doesn’t happen with other superstar players. (Quick on/off differential checklist: Jokic: +15.2; Cade: +9.1; Luka: +6.3; Giannis: +18.2; Shai: +13.1; Wemby: +7.6.) Ant should not be -2.2.
Why is it happening?
Let’s begin by searching for an excuse. Ant missed almost 5 full games with a hamstring injury. (The injury knocked him out of the Pacers game after just 3 minutes of action.) If the Wolves faced an especially easy schedule in Ant’s absence, then maybe an apologist could construct an argument in his defense that this helps explain why his fellow starters have better +/- stats. I don’t think that really does it here, though. They had home games versus the Pacers, Nuggets, and Lakers, and then road games versus the Hornets and Nets. A somewhat soft schedule on balance that is proportionate to the somewhat soft schedule the team has had through 23 games. Furthermore, if the Wolves did happen to pile on some big-margin victories in Ant’s absence (I guess they beat the Hornets by 17 and Nets by 16, nothing egregious but it matters) it’s evidence that they were capable of such performance… without Ant. That’s part of the equation. So I don’t think this line of argument holds any water here, and we have to look elsewhere.
If we can’t find an excuse, then let’s rule out what does NOT explain it, and that would be Ant’s scoring and shooting. He’s averaging a career-high 28.1 points per game, career-high 29.6 points per 36 minutes, and his overall field goal percentage (48.8) and three-point percentage (41.6) are both career highs. He’s hitting more free throws per game (5.9) at tied for career high accuracy (83.7%) than ever. Scoring is not the problem.
Ant’s problems dragging down his net rating are playmaking and defense.
On playmaking: his assist numbers are slightly down, and for an offense-first All-NBA guy, they weren’t super high to begin with. He’s averaging 3.9 per game, which would be his lowest since 2021-22. He’s sacrificed some playmaking duties to Randle. He’s also averaging 3.1 turnovers per game, which is in line with his last couple seasons (3.2 last year, 3.1 the year before that). Fewer assists with the same number of turnovers is regression. He’s currently ranked 73rd in the league in assists per game, while also ranked 24th in most turnovers per game. The post-game we read about in the preseason, a necessary staple for “heliocentric do-everything dominance” in the modern league, has not been there. Ant looks about the same, albeit with a more tuned-up jumper and slightly worse decision-making. So far this season he has not taken a step forward as an overall offensive player.
Defense is where Ant is grading out worse, however. The team’s defensive rating is 113.3, currently ranked 11th best out of 30. When Ant’s on the floor, it shoots up to 116.6. That is the same rating as the Lakers, who are 21st in the league. When some of Ant’s fellow starters are on the floor, they defend about as well as any non-OKC team in the league. (OKC’s at a ridiculous 104.2. Second-best is Houston at 110.7.) Rudy of course is the best among starters, at 107.9. Jaden’s at 111.9. Jaylen Clark comes off the bench and plays basically Ant’s position, and his defensive rating right now is in the OKC zone, at 104.4. Simply put, there’s plenty of good defensive stats on this roster, and with Ant’s ability on that end of the floor, he’s grossly underperforming.
Analyzed by the quarter of each game, a bad outlier for Ant is defensive rating in the 4th Quarter of games. Where the team’s 4th Quarter defensive rating is 110.3, Ant’s is 119.0. All of his fellow starters are significantly better than this. (Rudy: 107.2; Jaden: 108.2; Randle: 114.2; Donte: 114.2.)
None of this is to say or imply that Ant isn’t valuable or even the most valuable player on the team. What it is to say is that his minutes are not being maximized; not even close. Is there a way to save a little energy on offense while limiting the turnovers and mistakes? I would think so. Because until he’s got a smoother post game that can reliably facilitate open shots for both himself and teammates, he’s a capital-s-and-g Shooting Guard. There’s nothing wrong with that, and he’ll be All-NBA for as long as he’s on this team and this team is winning, but recognizing both strengths and limitations is necessary for growth.
Lighter schedule this week, with a home game versus the Suns on Monday, and then no game until Friday night at Golden State.
Go Wolves.
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