As of this writing on Saturday morning, the Timberwolves have 29 wins and 23 losses. They sit 6th in the largely jammed-together Western Conference, just 4 games from the 3-seed and 3.5 games ahead of the 11th spot. If we could freeze the standings now and keep the 6-seed, I’d take that outcome. The Wolves could get a fun and weirdly favorable matchup with Denver in Round 1, and if the stars aligned and they advanced, they’d avoid the OKC Thunder — the only great team in the conference — in the 2nd Round to follow.
There’s 30 games to go and I don’t have any clear overriding thoughts about the present state of the team. Instead, here’s a 30-pack of quick hitters of Wolves miscellany, presented in no logical order.
- Jaylen Clark appears to be a real player.
The first half of this Wolves season was not enjoyable, for a few basic reasons. One, the team was underperforming relative to expectations. Two, Coach Finch was essentially throwing out the exact same lineup each night, rarely even tinkering in ways that might unstick the stagnant offense, or at least spice things up. And three, the lineups deployed were heavy on older veterans, with all of the young “potential” players rotting on the bench.
This has all changed more than we could have expected, and frankly more than we would have wanted, with recent injuries to both Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle. (Eds note: There was also the very-unlucky Anthony Edwards illness that helped cost them a gimme-win vs. the Wizards, and apparently Mike Conley is trying to play through a series of hand and finger injuries.) These injuries have thrown lineups into flux and forced Finch’s hand when it comes to experimenting with different bench players.
By far the best story to emerge has been Jaylen Clark’s. Wolves fans could be forgiven for not even knowing who Clark was, before Finch unexpectedly threw him into the fire the other day against the Phoenix Suns, tasking him with Devin Booker and Bradley Beal Duty, when Clark himself even least expected it. Jaylen was drafted 53rd overall in the 2023 draft, making him technically a 2nd year player now, even though he spent all of last year on the injured list. More limiting than his nearly-undrafted status was his health at that time: Clark had just torn his Achilles tendon at UCLA, in the final game of the regular season. Even factoring that major injury in, his profile was not an especially “exciting” one. In an era where the talented prospects leave college after one season, Clark averaged just 2.5 points in 9.0 minutes per game as a freshman at UCLA. He bumped those numbers up to 6.7 points in 18.1 minutes as a sophomore. He finally got to start as a junior, and that’s when he broke out, but he primarily did so on the defensive end of the floor, earning a bunch of awards for defense. These included Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year and even Naismith Defensive Player of the Year.
The first impression of Clark as an NBA player versus the Suns confirmed his defensive-side priorities. He ably guarded both Booker and Beal in one-on-one matchups, helping the Wolves secure a big road win. It seems as if he gained an immediate and solid trust from Finch, who after that game said he had been thinking about using Clark for some time already. He played 10 minutes in that initial Suns game on January 29. In the 5 games since, he’s logged 17, 19, 18, 21, and 18 minutes, effectively serving as the team’s 7th man, behind the starting group and Nickeil-Alexander Walker.
Clark, as his college profile suggests, is definitely a defense-first player. At 6’4″ 205 pounds, he’s a full-sized guard with a lot of strength. He has a choppy gait that looks a lot like Eric Gordon’s; a physical comparison that likewise carries over to their stocky 6’4″ builds. When guarding the ball, Clark has a noticeable calmness as he goes about his business. To make an outrageously favorable comparison, he resembles Kawhi Leonard in how he looks entirely under control of his thoughts and movements as he goes about locking up his man. I faced some intelligent push-back on Twitter for already referring to Clark as an “excellent” defender, because he’s apparently not yet the most adept at anticipating or navigating certain screens, but I’ve already seen enough to not be too concerned about that. He already has the hard part down, which is defending the best perimeter scorers in the world without looking like a fool. The pleasant surprise with Clark is how that calmness has also carried to the offensive side of the floor. With a knack for timely baseline cuts allowing him the occasional easy two points, Clark also has been reliable as a corner jumpshooter. Nobody would expect him to shoot 4 for 6 from downtown regularly, as he did last game versus Houston, but it’s nice to see him look the part as an offensive-side role player.
Time will tell, as will the health of several other Wolves players (DiVincenzo’s more than anyone) just where Clark belongs in this team’s long-term plans. But it has been a pleasant surprise and legitimate feel-good story to see him emerge from the end of the bench and – frankly – the fringe of NBA existence toward a path that might allow him a real career.
(Eds note: Okay, I said I had no overriding Wolves thoughts and was going to instead rip off 30 quick takes. Apparently both sides of that were true, as I clearly wanted to write about Jaylen Clark, and there was nothing quick-hitter about that first one. We’ll be here all day if I don’t speed this up, so here goes…)
2. I don’t think that Chris Finch is a fan of Rob Dillingham’s game.
There are some legitimate, objective reasons to support Finch’s handling of Rob Dillingham this season. He’s 19 years old, he’s super small, and this Wolves team is, or is supposed to be, a serious one, not in the business of on-the-job training. This is not a team that can afford to have a little flashy guard dribbling the air out of the ball and spoiling possessions that otherwise should funnel through Anthony Edwards or his high-level teammates to handle the heavy lifting. Finch needs his bench players to not screw up before they make any great plays, and Rob Dillingham is going to screw up.
But those thoughts do not override the reality that this team for most of the season has been very slow and stale offensively, and has benefited more than a couple times from the juice that Rob provides as a dynamic scorer and playmaker. I have very little idea what Dillingham’s future in the league looks like. Finch might not have much idea either. But the dynamics of this situation have been set up for Rob to play a bigger role than he’s been allowed by Finch, and that has not happened. Lately, Clark’s emergence has come at a time when Rob’s minutes might have spiked more than they have. Finch was asked about Clark the other night after the game, and how young guys are more easily trusted when they can play defense, and his answer (unintentionally, I think) sounded like less of a Clark endorsement and more of a Dillingham rebuke.
This might change over time, but if I had to bet right now it would be that it will not. I think coaches generally develop impressions of their players pretty early and those impressions are hard to shake. With Rob, you can see what sort of player he is stylistically, and if Finch saw His Kind of Player there, I think he’d more eagerly buy into it and allow a longer leash. We have seen years of Finch coaching Jaden, speaking a huge upside into existence – or trying to, anyway. We’re not seeing anything like that with Finch and Rob.
3. Dillingham needs to not resemble Jamal Crawford as much as he sometimes does.
When any guard advances up the ranks of high school to college to pro, it becomes less viable to play 1 versus 5. Allen Iverson taught my own generation that you’re supposed to dribble back and forth and ignore your teammates, and some of us learned the hard way how what works for AI might not work for you. We’ve observed this tendency in Rob, and he clearly has one of the sickest handles in the league, right now. He dribbles the ball back and forth between his legs with a smoothness that seems preternatural. I love watching the guy dribble a basketball.
That skillset will be less his friend than enemy, however, if he leans on it too much. Nate Jones on Twitter (@JonesOnTheNBA) tweeted a clip of Rob and noted that he moves like a smaller @JCrossover (Crawford’s Twitter handle). I completely understand the comparison because I and I think others have already thought of it. Crawford had a long and impressive career as a 1 on 5 bucket-getter. Like Rob, he had one of the sickest handles in the league. But unlike Rob, Jamal was 6’5″, and unlike what Rob wants to become, Jamal was almost always a 6th man/bench scorer. If Rob wants to one day become a starter, he’d do well to hasten his decision making and save the ball-stopping dribble sequences for end of shot clock situations only.
4. My Luka Garza stock has crashed.
Even I am not sure how serious I’m being sometimes when I hype up Luka Garza as one of the best players in the league that never sees the floor. I think I’m being mostly serious, most of the time. When on January 30 versus Utah Garza scored 16 points in 14 non-garbage minutes, my stock soared to its all-time high.
Then came the Wizards game, when injuries/illnesses to the team’s best players put Garza in a rare spot of being sort-of needed for production. He shot 0 for 6 from the field. Then in the loss to the Kings two nights later, he was 1 for 5. And then, worst of all, came the Bulls game, when for the first time in ages he looked like he simply did not belong on an NBA floor, routinely picked on in spread pick-and-roll and practically falling over his own feet trying to keep up.
I haven’t lost all faith, but my faith has been violently shaken.
I may have been wrong about Luka Garza. But since I can’t find anybody to buy my Garza stock, that means I still own it, so just remember that, next time he goes on a heater for 12 points in 7 minutes of action.
5. Jaden has been playing better.
Nobody knows what’s going on in Jaden McDaniels’s head, which is one of the reasons we love him.
He entered the league with low expectations and quickly exceeded them.
Then he got paid, and failed to take much of a leap aside from getting national awards recognition for defense he was already playing before people noticed.
The big question is whether he can approximate Finch’s famous “Scottie Pippen” projection with some consistently good offensive play. Earlier this season, he was dragging the entire team down with missed open shots from the corners and a general failure to contribute. More recently, both of those things have changed for the better. On the season he’s 32 for 105 from the corners, a paltry 30.5%. There have been game outcomes that probably swung on Jaden missing from the corner. He’s been on a better run of late, however, making 9 of his last 22 corner threes (40.9%) over the last 10 games. That number could still afford to be a little better, but that’s a sign of progress. More than the corner threes, however, has been his overall activity and engagement with the basketball around the hoop. Jaden’s rebounding has never been where it should be, but lately he’s doing a better job. He’s had a pair of 12-rebound games over the last month, and is consistently pulling down at least 8 per game. He’s had three games of 4 steals since late January. His +/- has been consistently good and sometimes outstanding.
Jaden is trending in the right direction right now.
(Eds note: Okay I really do have to speed this up.)
6. Anthony Edwards has shown flashes of another leap.
Ant’s last two games were two of his best of the season. On a Wednesday-Thursday back-to-back he dropped 49 points on the Bulls, and then a masterpiece 41/7/6 on trash-talking Dillon Brooks and the Houston Rockets, both coming in decisive wins. The main statistical difference is in the free throws: he was 17-18 versus Chicago and 14-15 versus Houston. The main aesthetic difference to my eye was the increased space that seemed to be there for his driving lanes to the hoop. If he has indeed unlocked something new and sustainable, he’ll be entering the top tier of superstars in the league.
7. It is possible that Julius Randle’s absence has contributed to the increased spacing for Ant’s drives.
I am a Randle fan, at least in the context of how Randle is discussed by angry Wolves fans on the internet. I will not be heartbroken if the Wolves move him in the offseason, but while he’s here I appreciate the things he does to help the team win. But while I like Randle and some parts of his game, I can’t be blind to the fact that Ant has possibly found a new offensive gear shortly after Randle left the lineup with his pulled groin. If there’s a meaningful connection between these two events, that matters for future planning purposes.
8. If Randle’s absence is contributing to the increased spacing for Ant’s drives, then Finch should try to do a better job of coaching the team’s offense, when Randle returns.
Spacing is a coachable thing, too. Randle has fit into high-level offenses in New York and his offensive rating was generally tops on this year’s team, before his injury, too. Finch can do better with this.
9. It is also possible that Randle has nothing to do with the recent Ant explosion.
It might instead just be that the Bulls and Rockets lack rim protection and Ant smelled blood each time down the floor.
10. Anthony Edwards has already made 1,000 three pointers.
This is absurd and will be a talking point when the league discusses rules reform, to rein in the three-bombing.
As it pertains to Ant, however, it’s a tangible sign of work ethic and talent. He entered the league with athleticism and a list of question marks, one of which was whether or not he could shoot. He now jacks up 10 threes per game and connects on 42 percent of them. That’s like merging Michael Jordan and Steve Kerr together. lol
11. Naz Reid has an opportunity to make himself a lot of money.
Naz is going to opt out of his contract this summer so he can sign a long-term deal. The question is for how much money. Had Randle not gotten hurt, Naz would have remained a very good bench forward — 6th Man of the Year caliber, even. But a bench forward. He’s been able to start the last 4 games after the Randle injury. Unfortunately Naz got hurt himself in the first one, helping contribute to the terrible Wizards loss. But after that, he’s dropped 30, 22, and 15, and in the 15-pointer versus Houston played an all-around gritty game that included standing up to Rockets shenanigans that helped turn the tide in the Wolves favor. If Naz is able to turn in 10+ games as a bigtime producer in a winning context, that will matter for his next contract which at this point I think is a very hard one to predict.
12. Tim Connelly did not make any trades at the deadline.
You probably already knew this.
13. That Connelly did not make any trades will make for a tense offseason.
Randle and Naz each have player options. Naz is going to opt out and become a free agent, so he will for sure have to be re-signed if the Wolves want to keep him. Randle’s option is for $30 Million, however, which is nothing to sneeze at for a guy whose reputation as a player is somewhat volatile. There has been a sense that this has to be an either/or proposition, because paying both of them would mean exceeding the 2nd Apron again, which is a nonstarter under the new CBA rules.
14. I’m not certain that Naz and Randle has to be an either/or proposition; at least not if each’s value is somewhat contained.
Dane Moore is the go-to guy for understanding the Wolves cap situation, but I spent a few minutes trying to educate myself on this and I’m less convinced now than I was before that there is an immediate need to choose between Randle and Naz. I did not fully appreciate how big of a reduction Rudy took on his annual salary as part of his last extension (his salary drops about $13 Million next season) or how the 2nd Apron level is projected to rise considerably next year. Assuming my facts are straight on this, the Wolves could comfortably duck below the 2nd Apron apron next season if they negotiate a Randle extension for about $25 Million per year (just hypothetically thinking 3 years/$75 Million, instead of his 1 year/$30 Million option) and Naz signs for something like 4 years/$80 Million. In the numbers I ran, I included a NAW extension at $10 Million per year, and a few small assumptions like no more Minott/Ingles, and a $2 Million salary for Clark, and I had the team’s salary at $199 Million for 13 players. From what I understand from Google searching, the 2nd Apron will be at about $208 Million next year, so they could probably stay underneath it with these numbers.
Of course, two huge variables remain:
- Naz could get a much bigger payday than 4 years/$80 Million, especially if he goes off in the coming stretch.
- I might have greatly screwed up the above analysis and misunderstood the cap rules.
15. Showing my work on the projected cap sheet.
Rudy Gobert $35,000,000
Anthony Edwards $45,550,512
Jaden McDaniels $24,858,621
Donte DiVincenzo $11,990,000
Mike Conley $10,774,038
Rob Dillingham $6,576,120
Terrence Shannon Jr. $2,546,640
Julius Randle $25,000,000
Naz Reid $20,000,000
Nickeil Alexander-Walker $10,000,000
Luka Garza $2,349,578
Jaylen Clark $2,000,000
Leonard Miller $2,221,677
$198,867,186
(Eds note: okay, true rapid-fire time now to fulfill the 30-pack promise.)
16. Terrence Shannon Junior finally got into the game, and he made a huge dunk off his right foot.
17. It remains weird and ironic that DDV’s injury, which was objectively a bad thing, seems to have helped unlock some offensive firepower that we had not previously seen.
18. The West is bad enough below OKC that this team if it gets at least one of DDV or Randle back for the homestretch could be one that advances in the playoffs.
19. Apparently, we will learn who owns the Timberwolves on Monday when the arbitrators issue their decision. Some on Twitter are already proclaiming to know with certainty that the Lore group has won. From a basketball management standpoint, it’s hard to pull for Glen Taylor in this – he’s just presided over so much losing and the big recent change correlated with Lore’s arrival which brought Connelly’s arrival. The only pro-Glen angle that I can think of is that he might be less bad to work with on a new arena. Who knows.
20. Is Rudy Gobert still one of the best defensive players in the league? Whatever the answer is, it probably drives the rest of this season and maybe the one or two that follow it, more than gets discussed.
21. Per Alan Horton tweet from yesterday, Mike Conley has recently dislocated both his right thumb and right index finger, over the course of the last 10 days. Yikes. Bite Bite can be forgiven for not finishing as often on those righty floaters. Hopefully these aren’t permanent injuries – what a rough way to wrap up a long career to have your fingers dislocating on you.
22. In the above salary-estimate stuff, I had NAW slotted in at $10 Million per year. I can already hear people balking at that, thinking he’ll make more like $15 Million or even $20 Million. That could be, but on some level I think there’s just something baked into NAW’s existence in the NBA that is “underrated,” which also means “underpaid.” Tyus Jones is making $2 Million this season, so I won’t be surprised if NAW makes less than people expect.
23. It would be very helpful if the Pistons make the playoffs so that the Wolves get their 1st Round pick in 2025. (Note: they could get the pick if the Pistons miss the playoffs but have the best record amongst non-playoff teams. It is Top-13 protected, not “lottery-protected,” which means the 14th pick would convey to Minnesota, if that’s what the Pistons have. But at present with the records among mid West and mid East teams, that seems unlikely.) Last night, our guy Malik Beasley went off for a career-high 36 points in a big win over the Sixers, to enhance this effort. The Pistons are currently 6th in the East, which would be a fantastic place for them to finish.
24. A very thin silver lining to the Pistons pick not conveying this year would be one less guaranteed salary inching the total up near the 2nd Apron. Some of that timespan is broken up by the All-Star Break.
25. Win or lose, Glen’s public remarks after the arbitration ruling will be the stuff of legend.
26. Timberwolves alum Andrew Wiggins just got traded to Miami in exchange for Jimmy Butler. Time is a flat circle, or something.
27. A story was recirculating about Jimmy once explaining to Pat Riley, years ago, how Wigs was one of the most talented players he’d ever played with. That surprises people, but I think I can understand where that sort of opinion comes from. They would have played together and against each other in practices, where all the crafty foul-baiting gimmicks of actual NBA games are pretty worthless and frankly embarrassing. In practice, like in pickup ball, you just try to make shots and stop the other team from making shots. Wigs has never been especially crafty, but if it’s just a contest of trying to make field goals or contest thing, he’d show up very well. I hope he finds another round of success in Miami, where he’ll be getting the best coaching imaginable from Spoelstra.
28. There’s a fun conceptual lineup where Finch puts all of NAW, Ant, and Clark out on the floor at the same time. The pitbull factor seems to grow exponentially. That 3-man lineup has played 43 minutes, and has a net rating of +38.5. (145.2 offense versus 106.7 defense.)
29. Clark is an avenue for Finch to re-establish his footing and reputation as a good coach. Interpret that however you’d like.
30. The ownership thing is going to rock our Monday.
Go Wolves.