INBOX: ’08ers Being Frozen Out? (The Conspiracy Theory Edition)

Andy G: We wrote some about the awesome 2008 Draft class, yesterday. With Michael Beasley losing minutes to Wesley Johnson, and AR15 racking up DNP-CD’s the way J.J. Barea racks up wild turnovers, is it possible that these restricted free agents are being frozen out of bigger pay days?

I mean, there’s more-than-plausible deniability here; each guy has his own weaknesses and hardly COMMANDS big minutes. Beasley gets lost on defense and scores inefficiently more often than not, and AR15 has bouts of losing all control of his emotions and play. But Mike provides needed shot creation and AR15 racks up production in short minutes at reasonable efficiency… next summer, they’ll be taking their talents around the league, looking for long-term contracts. Might it be that Adelman or (more likely) KAHN are scheming to limit those contracts, perhaps planning to re-sign at least one of them at a bargain bin rate?

Patrick J: I like where you’re going with this, but I’ll disagree anyway. These guys are pretty much the basketball equivalent of that hot girl you always see at the bar whenever you go out for a drink: lots of potential on the outside, but deep down you know she wouldn’t be there if she weren’t deeply flawed on the inside. Randolph’s problems show up less in the stats than on the court. He just can’t control his body or emotions. (Sort of like that girl.) Beasley’s unfocused disengagement gets more troubling by the game. Both look like reconcilables, but they’d need the right situation, coaching, teammates, role, etc, and I think we’ll be lucky if either turns it around here. So I’ll give Adelman and Kahn the benefit of the doubt on this one–you know they want to exploit that talent more than anyone.

AG: Okay, I like the analogy, and you are probably right. How about tihs: Let’s assume that ONE of these two guys is getting the Isaiah Thomas Freeze-Out from some combination of Kahn, various Adelmans, and (just for fun) Rob Moor.

Which guy do you think the team would intentionally withhold an opportunity to, in hopes of retaining him at a discount?

PJ: I guess if we think through the implications of the theory, the answer would be Randolph–the reason being that he appears to be permanently benched DESPITE putting up solid numbers and being on the floor during many of the team’s better early-season runs, which often came during 2nd-half comebacks. In contrast, Beasley keeps getting fairly consistent, if limited, minutes. It’s weird to think about this since Randolph doesn’t seem like he’d be that expensive regardless, but he’s got the raw athleticism, length, and basketball IQ of DeAndre Jordan, and Jordan got paid (relatively speaking) after just one decent season, so it isn’t inconceivable that the same could happen to Randolph if he got enough showcase this year.

AG: I would also bet on Randolph, if forced to choose. I’ve been kicking around Derrick Williams trade ideas like it’s my job (even though I still like D-Thrill as a budding power forward prospect) and I’d guess R.J. Adelman spends much of his day doing the same. If the team can get wing value for D-Thrill (like Mayo, or Redick, or Kevin Martin, or Monta Ellis, or…) then all of a sudden AR15 means more to the team as a long-term backup big man. By freezing him out of minutes this year, they’re positioning themselves to be able to match what promises to be a reasonable offer, if he gets one. Problem is, he might just take his qualifying offer (if we extend it) and wait for UFA status. Hard to say, but I enjoy NBA conspiracy theories.

PJ: Here’s a question regarding another ’08er: Would you trade Derrick Williams for O.J. Mayo? Would Kahn? Would Chris Wallace?? With Z-Bo out, Memphis needs a PF and the Wolves need a SG, so the basic logic seems sound. But it hurts my brain to try to work through Kahn’s and Wallace’s potential thought processes. Who says no?

AG: D-Thrill for O.J.? I’m not sure that either team does it. Williams isn’t good enough (yet) to be relied upon by a team that hopes to contend for a championship. O.J. isn’t good enough for the Wolves to trade the most-recent #2 pick in the draft for. The trade would have to be adjusted somehow in our favor. Anyway, that’s probably enough speculation about the ’08ers for now. Until next time.

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