Monthly Archives: January 2012

by | January 21, 2012 · 3:34 pm

Can You Hear Me Now? A Night at the Verizon Center

Nick Young...yeah..

I’m a native Minnesotan turned academic nomad who has spent the last half-decade living in Chicago, the Bay Area, Boston, and now Washington DC. I only get to attend a few games at Target Center each year, usually while visiting family during the holidays.

But as both an NBA and Wolves junkie, a silver lining has been immersion in a variety of NBA cultures–in my case, the Bulls, Warriors, Celtics, and ‘Zards–while keeping a finger on the Wolves’ pulse through NBA League Pass, a running NBA-related email dialogue with Andy G, and religiously following a bunch of great Wolves sites.

I’ve attended games in each city where I’ve lived. Here’s a quick rundown.

My United Center experiences were pre-Rose and so pretty lame. The crowds were quiet, the United Center spacious and cold, and the neighborhood around the arena was somewhere you didn’t want to be.

My Oracle experiences were AWESOME. It was post-We Believe but pre-Implosion. The arena was cramped and stuffy and the fans were passionate and ROWDY. You’d see black, Asian, Latino, and white fans all sitting side-by-side, going all kinds of crazy for the Dubs. Whenever I went to Oracle, there was always a live funk band, cheerleaders wearing old school booty shorts and knee-high tube socks with yellow and blue rings at the top, and fast-break basketball. It was like a cross between a George Clinton concert and what I imagine ABA games were like. Best live basketball experiences I’ve ever had.

Games in Boston are fun because Celtics fans are PASSIONATE and LOYAL to the point of insanity. This was post-Title, but still when the Celtics were the best in the Atlantic. You’d feel like the guy sitting on each side of you might rip open your chest and pull out your heart if he even suspected you weren’t cheering for the Cs. Or that you weren’t a Red Sox fan. Or that you weren’t drinking Sam Adams. You get the idea. Overall, Boston games were fun because (1) the Celtics were really good and savvy, and (2) unlike the Dubs games, where fans were rowdy but just having a good time, Cs fans took the INTENSITY to a different level–so much so that ANGER and VIOLENCE always lurked as real possibilities for any perceived infraction at any possible time. I imagine this is what intense, insular religious experiences are like.

All of this is a roundabout way of setting up my first experience–last night–at a Wizards game here in DC. I knew the ‘Zards had the worst record in the league, but with their new unis and assorted personnel, I thought maybe–just maybe–the potential was there for a Dubs-like experience., with @JimmyWa playing the part of Boom Dizzle, Nick Young doing his best Stephen Jackson impersonation, Jordan Crawford shooting with the conscience of Monta Ellis, and JaVale McGee swatting shots like Andris Biedrins.

Man was I wrong.

Despite a close score, the atmosphere at the Verizon Center was flatter than Nebraska. The crowd only got loud during the 4th quarter when the Nuggs went to the free throw line, and only then because Chick-fil-A does a promotion where fans get a free sandwich when opposing players miss both shots during 4th quarter trips to the stripe. Yeah.

Then there are the players.

The Wiz’s best player, John Wall, was almost completely disengaged. Andray Blatche was a liability in just about every conceivable way. Nick Young did his best Shaddy McCants impersonation, shooting every time he touched the ball and scowling when fellow ball hogs Crawford or Blatche shot before the ball was swung to him. Trevor Booker and Chris Singleton play hard but have no talent. Booker is like Trenton Hassell–without the jump shot.

Then there’s the play itself.

The Wiz have no offense. Remember what the Cippers’ offenses looked like when Mike Dunleavy was the coach? The endless iso “plays” for Corey Maggette, and Cat Mobley, and Ricky Buckets? Fast forward to now, and you’ve got the Wiz. Any reputation Flip Saunders ever developed as a good offensive coach can no longer be credible. He will be fired soon.

The Wiz also do not have any defense. They’re terrible. Sure, Wall took some charges and McGee blocked/goaltended some shots, but their forwards were DESTROYED by the likes of Al Harrington and Danilo Gallinari.

Harrington and Gallo are the kinds of guys who don’t quite have star potential but who can and do relentlessly exploit weak defense until their line is gaudy. And that’s exactly what happened. Harrington had 29 and Gallo had 21. Both looked unstoppable, but in the sort of way that that overweight guy who hangs out at the “Y” can look unstoppable against younger, weaker players. The nail in the coffin was that Ty Lawson toyed with Wall most of the game, who looked lost trying to run whatever offense Saunders was trying to tell him to run. I bet Wiz fans wish they had Ricky.

Wolves fans are lucky. We’ve taken our lumps but things are getting better. And whenever we suffer a disappointing loss, we can always flip our League Pass over to the ‘Zards game for a quick pick-me-up.

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by | · 11:01 am

Love-Griffin I (Wolves 101, CLIPPERS 98)

K-Love after the game winner

The Game

Darko Milicic opened this contest with a jump hook that gave his Wolves a 2-0 lead over the Clips. (Darko played great the whole contest, by the way.)  But this lead would be the only one the Wolves enjoyed until Kevin Love sank an open 28-footer as the buzzer sounded.  Narrowly edging out his friend and rival, Blake Griffin, Love capped a rather-amazing comeback for his team on a night when baskets were all-too-difficult to come by.  Ricky Rubio in particular (1-11 FGM-A, 9 points) couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn and looked as rattled as we have seen him in an NBA uniform.  But as everyone noted after the game, his competitive fire never waned and his playmaking and free-throw shooting were crucial to the victory.  Immediately before Love’s heroics, Ricky tied the game with a corner trey.  After missing all ten of his field goals to that point, he didn’t hesitate for a second in taking and making the big shot.  For all of his struggles, Rubio was a (+2) for the game; the only starter in the positives.

But enough about Rubio for now. This game was built up by the talking heads as a matchup of the league’s best power forwards–LaMarcus Aldridge and Dirk Nowitzki may have things to say about this, but whatever, we’re going with it–who thrive even though they could hardly differ more in terms of their length and athleticism. In the early going, Blake struggled to score against his bigger defender, Darko. He resorted to jump shots, clanking almost every time.  As the game progressed, Blake showed some smarts, challenging Darko with spin moves and up fakes. He finished the game with a respectable 21 & 11, but his 5 turnovers were excessive and his missed pair of free throws with a minute to go (Darko fouled out respectably, corralling Blake to prevent the basket and putting the lid on his most-productive performance of the year – 22 points and 7 rebounds) proved to be fatal. Love had an equally-mediocre game by his own high standards, until of course, the buzzer-beating dagger.  He shot 5-16 from the floor, but grinded out a 17-point, 14-rebound, 3-assist, and 0-turnover stat sheet.  I would call the individual matchup (even though they didn’t guard one another, we’re calling this a matchup) a wash, except that Blake choked at the line, and Love was the hero in the end.  Love wins this one.

The Bench

Look at the box score, and you’ll notice that the bench has the big pluses in the +/- column.  Derrick Williams in particular stands out, as he chipped in 9 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists in only 14 minutes of action.  The Wolves were a whopping (+17) in that short bit of time while D-Thrill was wreaking havoc.  He showed off the move I’ve been clamoring for more of: that 15-17 foot jab step dribble drive.  Amar’e and Bosh use that all the time and Williams has that type of athleticism and dribbling ability. He did it in college and it worked for him tonight and I hope to see more of this in the future.  Given that the Wolves are searching for offensive proficiency in Michael Beasley’s absence, I have been disappointed to see Williams’ minutes cut.

Wayne Ellington continues to bury jumpers at a nice rate (6-9 FG; 1-2 3PT).  Wellington comes off a pick and fires like Rex Chapman or Eddie House.  Is this a sustainable way to produce?  Maybe; maybe not.  But as a limited reserve, there are worse things than a quality chucker.  Thirteen games in, Wayne’s field goal percentage is up from his career average (41.8 percent career; 46.3 percent this season).  Some of that is attributable to Rubio setting him up better than Flynn (ya think?) or Ridnour could in seasons past.

Anthony Tolliver didn’t play his best game, and here’s why: he forgot what his role is.  I think Hubie Brown (who was awesome, by the way–who doesn’t like color commentary in the second-person?) pointed this out, but Tolliver needs to shoot the ball when he’s open.  (So does Wes Johnson, but I’ve given up hope, there.)  Tolliver has seemed to understand his role in the offense better than most players and has hit huge treys off of Rubio dimes.  In this game, he put it on the floor too much and, as often happens for him, he turned the ball over.  A player of this type should not have 3 turnovers in an entire game’s work, let alone 19 minutes.  He was the only bench player in the minus column, with a (-4).

The Clips

The elephant in the room is that the Clippers were without Chris Paul (and Caron Butler, but Gomes did just fine replacing Tuff Juice).  Chauncey Billups thinks it’s 2004 and this is a problem for Lob City.  As Mo Williams showed the world last night (25 points), he is actually a good basketball player.  Billups relies almost exclusively on trying to draw fouls and doesn’t pose the same threat that he used to as a playmaker.  When Williams was ejected (two separate technical fouls, almost-definitely swung the game’s outcome) Billups put on his hero cape and came up short with turnovers and missed shots.  In my opinion, the Clippers would benefit from ditching Billups and running with Paul and Williams for the bulk of minutes, and some Randy Foye mixed in as a change-of-pace reserve.

Oh, DeAndre Jordan.  It was almost comical watching the little Wolves trying to shoot over this guy.  Ridnour hit a floater that must have gone 15 feet in the air, and DJ damn-near got a hand on it at its peak.  Jordan is worthless offensively, but his defensive impact is obvious on a single viewing.  In case you forgot how bad Kevin McHale was at drafting players, he passed on Jordan with the 31st (Pekovic) and 34th (Mario Chalmers, traded to Heat) picks in the 2008 Draft.  Can you imagine walking away from that draft with Kevin Love and DeAndre Jordan?  I digress.

Looking Ahead (a few hours)

Wolves travel to Salt Lake tonight where they’ll face a seemingly-improved Jazz team (9-5, but against a relatively-easy schedule so far) led by an old favorite of my own, Al Jefferson.  Big Al is leading the Jazz in points (18.3) and rebounds (9.2) per game, but is hardly the focal point that he once was on some terrible Wolves teams.  EnergySolutions Arena (the Delta Center was so much easier to say) is a tough place to leave victorious.  The Jazz rested last night and the Wolves will have their hands full.  In the interest of getting way ahead of ourselves, if the Wolves want that eighth playoff spot in the West, Utah would probably be the team they’d displace.

Season Record: 7-8

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by | January 19, 2012 · 11:23 pm

SAVE THE CENTER: A Rule Change That Should Actually Happen

George Mikan, Minneapolis Lakers

Kyrie Irving is a 6’3”, 191 pound point guard who left college after his freshman season at Duke to declare for the NBA Draft.  Having played only eleven college games, and without any of the special physical gifts that made scouts’ mouths water over Derrick Rose and John Wall in previous years, the Cavs selected Irving first overall to be the cornerstone of Dan Gilbert’s Post-Decision Rebuilding Project.

Irving’s rookie season and NBA career are off to a wonderful start.  The Cavs are noticeably improved (6-7 at this point), and he’s averaging an efficient 18 points and 5 assists per contest.  Only he’s no lock for Rookie of the Year, even if he can continue this pace.  That’s because Ricky Rubio happened. Rubio is the buzz of the basketball world due to his style and incredible ability to impact games as the Timberwolves’ floor general. Last year, Rubio couldn’t get anything right in Spain. Now he flourishes night in and night out against the best players in the world.

A month or two before David Stern (or was it Adam Silver–I’ve tried to permanently erase all memories of these suits since the LOCKOUT) called Irving’s name in New York, Derrick Rose–another 6’3” guard barely old enough to get into Chicago bars–won the league MVP for leading the Bulls’ revival from his spot at the point. The Bulls won 62 games last year, in large part due to his offensive dominance.

Irving, Rubio, and Rose are not alone in succeeding to improbable levels at point guard in the NBA.  John Wall, drafted first overall a season before Irving, had a dynamite rookie season for the Wizards and has the look of a future All-Star.  Philadelphia (10-4) is a dark horse title contender, starting 21-year old Jrue Holiday at the point.  The 11-4 Atlanta Hawks are starting a 23-year old, Jeff Teague, who was barely drafted in the first round.

Jrue Holiday...really?

Do a quick scan of every team in the league and ask yourself if any DOES NOT have a good point guard.  Sacramento?  Maybe, but only if Tyreke doesn’t qualify for the position.  The Lakers and Heat?  Perhaps, but they’re so stacked at the wing that having a point who dribbles a lot would be more of a hurt than a help.

So, all of these great point guards… does it reflect something nation or worldwide about basketball interest, and an influx of newly-20-somethings that have been dedicated to hoops?

If that were the case, wouldn’t there be a similar phenomenon amongst the bigs, too?

It isn’t.

Dwight Howard is the only center in the NBA who can fairly be categorized as a “superstar.”  And he isn’t a star for his offense.  Last season, his seventh as a pro, Howard averaged a career-high 22.9 points per game.  The only other centers who played in the All-Star Game (Tim Duncan and Al Horford, each of whom started his career in the league as a power forward) each averaged under 16 points per game.

What happened to the 1990s, when centers ruled the league? (Well, other than games that Michael Jordan was playing in.) In different seasons, Ewing, Robinson, Olajuwon, and O’Neal averaged between 27 and 30 points per game.  Today, that simply doesn’t happen with back-to-the-basket players. Shaq, Hakeem, and Robinson won championships; Ewing came preciously close.  Yet Dwight Howard remains ringless.

If the plethora of good points and the dearth of good bigs isn’t a coincidence, then what explains it?

The rules changed.

Instead of “illegal defense” (guard your man or double-team the ball, essentially) defenders would only be restricted to a “three-seconds” rule for situations were they weren’t defending an individual player.  In other words, zone defense was now legal–with limitations–and perimeter players could now hedge down on the post without having to commit a full double team that left their own player wide open for a jump shot.

Why the change?  No need to speculate, there.  NBA Senior Vice President of Basketball Operations explained for us back in 2002:

The illegal defense guidelines needed to be eliminated because they have become problematic. They are problematic for our fans, who don’t understand the rule. They are problematic for the officials, who admittedly have had difficulty administering the rule. And finally, our teams have used the guidelines in a way that produces isolation basketball. Teams identify areas on the floor that they can use to their advantage in a given offensive matchup and this produces a real sameness of play amongst a lot of our teams. With isolation basketball, a lot of our teams began standing around. There is little player movement, there is little ball movement, and there is a decreasing amount of fastbreak opportunities. These developments began with the misuse of the illegal defense guidelines and therefore they needed to be eliminated. By eliminating them, our desired result is to get a game that once again is based on passing, cutting, player movement, and ball movement. A game that hopefully produces fastbreak opportunities because that is the way our game should be played.

Those admirable goals were, in large part, met with the rule change.  But along with the changes were some unintended casualties: namely, most of the superstar centers who used to dominate games with their backs to the basket.  Sure, Shaq won MVP’s and titles with the Lakers, but he was a unique case of overwhelming size and skill that has never been seen before, or since.  Tim Duncan was almost as dominant as Prime Shaq, but much of his play was at power forward, thriving off of a square-up game and bank-shot that is now emulated by fours like Chris Bosh and even Kevin Love.

After the announcement of the rule change, Shaq was asked for his opinion.  All he would say was, “Stinks.”  In the same Sports Illustrated piece, P.J. Brown added, “I don’t think it’s good at all. Zones will bring the games to a grind.”  What he wasn’t taking into consideration were the ever-tightening restrictions on hand-checking that would help make point guard the easiest offensive position in the league.  In other words, the game would only come to a “grind” for posts now facing more defenders from the same island, eight or more feet from the basket.

How many NBA players today actually prefer to score with their back to the basket?  Al Jefferson is probably the best, and it’s up for debate what type of role he can command on a competitive team.  The help-down defense on the strong side, combined with allowing free roaming of the other three defenders, is a strong deterrent to the post moves once relied upon by the best in the game.

Al Jefferson's post game is muted with the current rules

Given that the point guard-to-center exchange rate seems to be approaching 50:1, and there isn’t a single center as offensively-gifted as Patrick Ewing was in an average year, shouldn’t something to be done to remedy the situation and clear the way for some talented bigs (DeMarcus Cousins, Al Jefferson, Roy Hibbert, Greg Monroe) to challenge the sort of impact that Rose and his ilk are making?

Here’s a basic idea that is more-conventional than many rule changes that the most-conservative NBA has made over the years:

NARROW THE LANE.

In 1951, the NBA widened the lane from six to twelve feet.  This change, by no coincidence, occurred during George Mikan’s reign as the best player in the league and a flurry of (MINNEAPOLIS) Laker titles.  In 1964, a different Laker-to-be was dominating the league too much on the interior.  With Wilt dropping 100 on a hot night, the league felt the need to expand the lane even beyond twelve feet, out to sixteen.  Note that zone defense was outlawed back in 1946.  So the compromise was reached.

Defense: You can’t mess with Wilt too much; either a full double team or guard him straight up.

Wilt: Get out from under the damn hoop.  You’re enormous.

This equilibrium lasted for almost 40 years, until Pat Riley’s Knicks started playing clutch-and-grab, hack-a-anybody defense that damn-near carried them to a championship not seen in New York since the seventies.  But while New York is a big market, and the Spike-Reggie Rivalry was high entertainment, the brand of basketball was lacking.  Scoring was way down, players were being rewarded for thuggery under the hoop, and fan interest was deflating fast after the (second of three) retirements of His Airness.

Patrick Ewing going head-to-head with David Robinson

But with zone defense principles allowed for the first time in over fifty years, the league should have reciprocated to the tall folks of the hoops world by narrowing the lane.  Wilt and Mikan (and Shaq, had these changes not happened before him) needed a bigger lane because only one player was allowed to guard them.  In today’s game, posts are faced with defense from all directions.  This isn’t entirely center-specific (can you even imagine Charles Barkley trying to back his man down for 12 seconds with today’s rules?) but the seven-footers of the world are affected the most for two reasons:

* Their comparative advantage (height) is most-negated by being pushed away from the rim; and

* They possess the least ability to dribble with nearby defenders.

If the league narrowed the lane back to 12 feet (same as high school and college) two things would undeniably happen:

* Centers would score more points.  They’d be allowed to establish position closer to the hoop and traditional back-to-the-basket moves, like drop steps, up-and-unders, and jump hooks would all be executed from a reasonable distance.  Rather than having to square up and essentially dribble penetrate from the extended elbow, posts could be posts again.  In the 90′s, Ewing and Hakeem could spend as much time as needed backing down their man to get prime position.  In today’s NBA, there are too many quick hands and sneaky help defenders for the tallest players to be putting the ball on the floor with any frequency.

* Shot Blockers would matter more than they do now.  If Darren Collison and Eric Maynor and Jeff Teague and D.J. Augustine can be solid NBA players, why can’t Hasheem Thabeet?  Why shouldn’t a 7’4″ freak who can bat your weakass shit into the fifteenth row be able to make a living despite weaknesses, the same way a 6’1″ lead guard with court awareness but no value added to league entertainment be able to?  With a narrow lane comes quicker helpside defense.  Shot blocking would be more relevant than it is now.

A narrow lane would not make centers unstoppable.  The best post scorers like Jefferson, Howard, and Bynum, would simply attract more defense and their teams would have to hit perimeter shots to counter.  It’s still the team game and free-flowing concepts sought by Stu Jackson in 2002, just with a fair fight between the less-coordinated-but-mammoth centers and the lead guards that will soon need their own league to employ all capable job candidates.

The NBA has made radical changes to its rules over its history.  Think about the three-point shot.  How crazy would it seem to us young adults (who weren’t around when that change happened) if a four-point shot was instituted for 30-footers?

Is narrowing the lane to a width used at an earlier point in history so crazy?  Do fans simply not enjoy great bigs? Did somebody forget to consult Bill Walton?

One final question:

If the league had to widen the lane when centers become too dominant, shouldn’t it narrow the lane when the position is nearly extinct?

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by | January 18, 2012 · 11:35 pm

Playing to the Competition (WOLVES 93, Pistons 85)

15,598 people attended tonight’s matchup between the Timberwolves and Pistons, and most of them brought the same level of enthusiasm as the Wolves’ players. That is to say the arena had the feel of a tennis match as Tayshawn Prince destroyed Wes Johnson (and anyone else who tried to stop him) and Wolf jumpers continuously clanked off the rim, the backboard, or both.

The saving grace tonight for the good guys was just how inept Detroit has become. Despite a hot shooting night from Prince (13-23, 3-5 3PT, 29 points) and a (relatively) efficient night from Ben Gordon (7-15, 18 points) Detroit made enough mistakes and missed enough free throws to lose to Minnesota on a REALLY cold night. The Wolves shot just 30-75 from the floor (40.0 percent) and that number must have been even lower at halftime, when they trailed 42-36. I overheard somebody in the concession line remark that “it’s okay; you only need to play one quarter to beat the Pistons.” That was proven correct in this game. The Wolves ratcheted up the defensive pressure in the 4th Quarter (WINNING TIME) and buried Detroit with a 29-14 quarter point.

This really wasn’t the most interesting of contests, even for the die-hard NBA fan. With that in mind, and with a weekend double-header on the way (Clippers on Friday (CP3 may not play–hamstring), Jazz on Saturday) I’ll bring this one home with a few brief notes and let readers add anything they see fit in the comments:

* Detroit lost this game at the free-throw line. They shot 10-21 (47.6 percent) and a respectable 15 or 16 makes would have SERIOUSLY pressured the Wolves comeback effort.

* Ricky missed everything tonight–EXCEPT the coolest layup I’ve seen all year. He drove left, whirled the ball around his back and finished as the defenders’ heads were spinning. He shot 1 for 8, yet impacted the game with filthy dime after dime down the stretch. It’s hard to pick a favorite, but the winding kick-out to Wellington on the wing for a trey stuck out as an uber-important basket. This bucket extended the lead to 7 (88-81) with 4:22 to go and was the moment that the game felt in hand.

* Oh, and Ricky was getting his hands on every loose ball and rebound opportunity, too. This type of game is what optimists expected as his upside. (9 points on 8 shots; 7 rebounds; 8 assists; 6 steals). His impact was second to Love’s in securing this win.

* Love had 20 and 17. Ho. Hum.

* Derrick Williams, I continue to believe, needs to aggressively drive from that 15-feet, square-up position. When he does it without hesitation, he looks like Amar’e Stoudemire. Too many times, he looks more like Wes Johnson, shuffling his feet and wondering how best to not do something productive. Come on D-THRILL! He’s good, just give him time.

* No matter what you might think, or what you’ve been led to believe, the team is not benefitting from Michael Beasley’s absence. They’ve managed to beat some bad teams (Wizards, Hornets sans Gordon, Kings, Pistons) and have lost to the Raptors, Bulls, and Hawks. If Beasley’s shooting regresses to the mean of his career, he’s a player this team could use. That isn’t to say he’s perfect, great, or even “good.” Just that he possesses a skill set that no other Wolf comes close to. That may change over time with Derrick Williams, but he isn’t anywhere near as polished as Mike is at collecting baskets against real defense. Combine Rubio’s passing with Love’s foul-drawing and then add in Mike’s shot creating–that has the feel of a legitimately-good team. Not just one that eeks out scrappy wins against dog shit competition.

Season Record: 6-8

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by | · 6:31 pm

Pistons Preview

Photo by Getty Images

The Wolves should win easily tonight against the Pistons, but Monday’s ugly win over SAC illustrates that you can’t take anything for granted.

What I’m most interested in about tonight’s game is Adelman’s rotations. What adjustments should he make?

Here’s what I think we’ll see:

Wes Johnson: For the first time this season, Adelman was praised Monday for giving Wes extended minutes against SAC, mostly because he did an effective job against Kings hired scorer John Salmons. With Webster still out and the Wolves facing Tayshaun Prince, another long three, look for Wes to get over 30 minutes no matter how bad he shoots.

Darko: The Wolves will need Good Darko to come out tonight, at least on the defensive end of the floor, because Pistons big man Greg Monroe is their best player and is emerging rapidly as a BIG headache for opposing defenses. Monroe’s finesse game and footwork would get Pekovic into foul trouble in a hurry, so look for Darko to play a lot of minutes tonight–closer to 30-35 minutes than 21-22, which he tends to get against smaller teams.

J.J. Barea: J.J. is due back from injury tonight, and it’s a good game to have him return for: Pistons SG Ben Gordon is ridiculously strong and won’t be the easier cover for Ridnour. With Rubio presumably committed to guarding Brandon Knight and Rodney Stuckey, J.J.’s strength could be a huge factor in keeping Gordon from getting the looks he wants.

What else? K-Love should own Jerebko. Love has been logging a lot of long minutes, so if the Wolves get ahead, maybe Adelman can get Anthony Randolph or Derrick Williams some time tonight.

Enjoy the tilt.

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by | · 4:30 am

INBOX: A Quick Look at the Top 10 Picks in Last Year’s Draft

Yesterday Andy G and I ended up with a LONG email thread on this year’s rookies. We decided to post an ABRIDGED version of our tongue-in-cheek assessments of the top 10 picks in last year’s draft. Because, you know, it’s never too early to publish knee-jerk reactions on the Internet about players you’ve barely seen.

Without further adieu:

10. Jimmer Fredette, Sacramento Kings

JIMMER! The BYU sensation is off to a slow start. Although I expect improvement, the early signs are not good. Jimmer averaged 29 points per game, last year. That number is now down to 7.6, and only 11.9 per 36 minutes. What’s worse, he’s shooting a miserable 34 percent from the floor, and only 28 percent from downtown, where he KILLED IT in college (and well beyond the pro three-line).

In his defense: He’s ALREADY undergone a coaching change (BOOGIE!) and he’s playing with some world-class BALL STOPPERS in Tyreke, Thornton, and JOHN SALMONS! I half-predicted a King resurgence this year, and so far, they’ve made me look like a fool. Jimmer is not in anything close to an ideal scenario and the numbers are playing that out. - Andy G

9. Kemba Walker, Charlotte Bobcats

The Bobcats are WAY lucky Kemba fell to them at #9. The only thing not to like about Walker’s season so far is that Paul Silas isn’t starting him. But that’ll come. Before the draft, I didn’t think Kemba had the scoring and passing ability necessary to star in the NBA. When his stock slid and it was Michael Jordan who finally picked him, I was sure MJ had himself the next Nate Robinson.

I couldn’t have been more wrong. Walker should supplant D.J. Augustin as the Bobcats’ starting PG before season’s end and he’s sure to connect with blog favorite BYRON MULLENS for more of these.

Kemba’s numbers aren’t staggering—he’s shooting only 38% from the floor and averaging 11.3 ppg (17.5 per 36)—but you can just tell that some guys can play and Walker is one of them. (Brandon Jennings is another. Apparently they bring out the best in each other.) In hindsight, I’d take Kemba third in last year’s draft. - Patrick J

8. Brandon Knight, Detroit Pistons

We’ll see the latest COACH CAL product on Wednesday Night at Target Center. As a young scorer, he’s off to a nice start. Knight’s set-shot is falling at a 41.4 percent clip from downtown and he’s scoring 11.9 points per game (14.1/36 minutes) as a very-young rookie. He’s got a great NBA point guard body, but doesn’t seem to have point guard instincts. Or maybe I’m just spoiled from watching Ricky Rubio. Either way, Knight is off to a decent start–more as a scorer than passer. On that terrible, aging Pistons team, he should be committed to as the number-one guard even more than his 30 minutes/game suggest. Oh, and he’d be wise to pass the ball to Greg Monroe. That’s a way to gather easy assists. - AG

7. BISMACK BIYOMBO, Charlotte Bobcats

Well, at least MJ went 1-for-2 in this draft. - PJ

6. JAN VESELY, Washington Wi-ZARDS

Jan is the worst player on the worst team in the NBA. What does he have going for him?

Her, I suppose. - AG

5. Jonas Valančiūnas, Toronto Raptors

It’s unclear what’s going to happen first, the next full lunar eclipse or Jonas suiting up for the Raps. - PJ

4. TRISTAN THOMPSON!, Cleveland Cavaliers

Twenty-year old bigs who produce 16 and 10 per 36 minutes are nice to have. It’s even nicer when they shoot better than 50 percent from the floor and have a motor like a Dodge Charger.

But Tristan needs to touch up his free throw shooting and learn to pass. His team is trying to be competitive—the Cavs are currently sporting a 6-6 record—so he’ll have to earn his minutes. 18 mins/game won’t be enough to make a splash, but Tristan’s time is coming. - AG

3. Enes Kanter, Utah Jazz

Kanter has two claims to fame:

  1. Dominating Ohio State all-American Jared Sullinger in the 2010 Nike Hoop Summit.
  2. Having a first name that’s nearly interchangeable with “Anus.”

AK is in a logjam in Utah’s frontcourt, competing against Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, and Derrick Favors for tick. He’s only playing 13.5 mpg and averaging 4.4 pts, but his still-decent PER (16.6) shows why the stats kids still believe Anus will come out smelling like roses. -PJ

2. Derrick Williams, Wolves

In many respects, Derrick Williams is what we thought he was. He’s a power forward with perimeter skills and leaping ability.

What we don’t know: Does Derrick Williams have a post game? Will we ever find out? Will he be traded for a veteran wing player?

Lots of question marks. He seems like a hard worker who will have a long-and-productive career. Without a DOUBT, he’s better than the recent Syracuse picks. I’d say there’s a real question whether he stays in Minnesota, though. Unless Love makes it CLEAR to the front office that he’s headed elsewhere in the future, I think there’s a positional problem for Williams that will never be quite fixed. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s dealt sometime before this deadline, or around draft time 2012, perhaps to get the Wolves a lottery pick. Of course, he’ll need to snap out of this recent slump to have much value. I’ve got confidence in him, but does Rick Adelman? - AG

1. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers

Irving is what we thought he’d be. He has put up nice numbers—his 17.7 ppg rank first among rookies and his 5.3 apg rank second to Ricky Rubio’s 8.3 apg—and is as EFFICIENT as was billed: Kyrie’s shooting 42% from range, 87% from the stripe, and sporting a PER of 22.3.

Beyond the numbers, what’s really impressive is how comfortable Irving looks after playing only 11 games in his college career. As great as Ricky Rubio has been for the Timberwolves, it’s not obvious that Rubio is or will be the better player. They should have a fun rivalry, starting with competing for this year’s Rookie of the Year award. - PJ

Which dark horse rookies do you like?

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by | January 17, 2012 · 12:09 am

Playing the Matchups (WOLVES 99, Kings 86)

Luke Ridnour had 25 pts and 9 asts in Monday's victory over Sacramento

Wesley Johnson, the player selected fourth overall in the 2010 NBA Draft in large part due to shooting prowess, is now hitting 31.7 percent of all shots from the floor and 12.5 percent of three-point attempts.  So, why did Johnson log 34 minutes on a night when his shooting woes (3-11 total; 0-4 3PT) continued?  My only guess is that the coaches felt that the matchups dictated Wes being out there.  JOHN SALMONS! is actually a pretty good isolation scorer.  He’s played this role on decent teams (Chicago, Milwaukee) unlike many nondescript ballers of his ilk.  Wes, shooting struggles aside, stayed right with Salmons all night, leaving the scoring specialist with a 4-11 shooting line, with 11 points and 2 turnovers.  In this respect, Wes did his job.  But man–he’s missing WIDE OPEN SHOTS.  Wayne Ellington is not missing these shots and is a noticeably-better offensive player than the second-year wing from The ‘Cuse.

The Wolves hit a rough patch in the 2nd Quarter.  After a pair of Derrick Williams free throws (his only points of the evening–more on this below) the Wolves led 30-22.  Over the next 11:21 to end the half, the Kings ripped off a 24-12 stretch that had Wolves fans a little-bit restless at the break.  Much of these struggles was directly attributable to missing jumpshots.  On some of these–particularly with Derrick Williams and Kevin Love–there was hesitation to shoot after a solid pass, usually from Rubio.  I thought we were done with this.  The Rule of Rubio is that he passes, you shoot.  How many of the great Wolves moments from this early season HAVEN’T been tied to catch-and-shoot basketball?  In any case, the Wolves went to halftime with a 4-point deficit and some talking points ready made for the coaching staff.

In the third, the shooting wasn’t hot, but the Wolves (specifically, Kevin Love) grinded it out with a combination of free throws and better defense.  Love had 11 points total in the quarter, en route to a 33-point, 11-rebound, 3-assist, 2-steal gem of a performance.  This was classic Love, baiting officials into questionable foul calls, and hitting opportune jumpers to break the opponent’s back.  His interaction with the refs reached a tipping point tonight, earning him a technical foul and later flirting with an ejection.  He is quickly approaching the Kobe and LeBron level of getting utmost respect from the refs, and giving thanks by way of whiny gestures.  Oh well — it’s a lot-less annoying when it’s your team getting the calls.  On this night Love was a team-best (+22).

The lid came all the way off the basket in the fourth, with Ellington, Ridnour and Love taking turns making it rain at Target Center.  After a Jason Thompson dunk cut the lead to 1 (72-71) Adelman called timeout.  The Wolves then proceeded to a 27-15 closing stretch over 8:51.  Rubio hit a trey to extend the lead to 9 at the 5:11 mark and swung a fist of celebration to the crowd.  This was a frustrating game for him, in part due to his own misfiring on jumpers (3-10 total) but also because teammates (Darko, Wes, Pekovic) blew easy scoring opportunities that only Ricky can provide.  Pekovic and Milicic, as was pointed out by David Thorpe who attended this game, are not at all Rubio’s kinda guys on the court.  His (-3) was a rare negative +/- for the young phenom.

All in all, it was a hard-fought win against a bad team.  In years past, a win was a win was a win.  Since this year is DIFFERENT (the Wolves currently own a 0.5 game edge over the BOSTON CELTICS!) a struggle-fest against the Kings that requires a Wellington Bailout feels less satisfying.  I hope they dispose of the shitty Pistons on Wednesday with relative ease.

A few bullets:

* DeMarcus Cousins can’t get no respect.  I don’t even mean this as a joke–sure, he invites criticism by his constant whining, but so does Kendrick Perkins and it doesn’t seem to prevent Perk from getting a call or two.  Cousins must have been hacked or pushed a half dozen times in this game by the Serbian-Montenagran combo of Darko and Pek.  He shot 0 free throws for his efforts and was called for 4 fouls of his own in 25 minutes of action.  From my view it looked like the refs had it out for the enigmatic big man.  For what it was worth, he hit some nice jumpers and really does show off excellent footwork.  For his sake, I hope he finds some sort of comfort level in the NBA so we can all watch his talent on a consistent basis.  The league needs more talented bigs to balance out this wave of awesome lead guards.

* Since Rubio looks like the business as a true point guard, I’ll make what some might consider to be a BOLD STATEMENT: Steph Curry wouldn’t be any better for this team than Luke Ridnour is.  Luke is playing off the ball now, and is shooting as well as any Timberwolf I can ever remember.  He had 25 points and 9 assists tonight on 10-14 shooting (4-4 from 3.)  Curry is an awesome point guard, but if you’re sticking each slightly-built point guard off the ball, I don’t see a big difference between he and Luke Ridnour.  Not only did Luke shoot well tonight, but he also defended Marcus Thornton just fine.  I doubt very much that Curry would have been able to handle that matchup the way Ridnour did.  (OBVIOUS REBUTTAL: Curry would have trade value that Luke doesn’t.)

* The Kings might improve some if Francisco Garcia played more.  He “fits in” out there and doesn’t need to dominate the ball.  They’ve got a surplus of ball-dominant wings (without a single true point) who like to slash.  The lone saving grace is that they penetrate-and-kick.  On some similarly-built offenses (the Dunleavy-led Clips come to mind) the isolation is without passing.  Sacramento doesn’t seem quite as selfish as they do mismanaged.  Jimmer was a stupid draft pick for that roster.

* Pekovic fouls on damn-near every possession.  He was called for 4 tonight in 16 minutes and none of those were the time he threw DMC to the ground after a missed free throw.

* Derrick Williams made exactly one move tonight that got me excited.  He squared up a defender from 14 feet and went right at him to the cup.  This is the Amar’e stuff that he seems to have the potential to try.  He got fouled and made a pair of free throws; his only points.  The next time he found himself on the elbow with one-on-one coverage, he looked lost and passed it off after a hesitation.  He is battling some confidence issues.  Given this team’s propensity to start chucking from three (perhaps the best way to win games, right now) it sure would be nice if it could incorporate D-Thrill as an interior scoring presence.

Season Record: 5-8

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by | January 16, 2012 · 11:41 am

The Best Power Forward in Timberwolves History

A well-known commentator writes:

“Yes, right now Love has been more effective than Kevin Garnett was here, even in his prime. Love is averaging 25.0 points and 14.6 rebounds per game during his fourth professional season. Garnett averaged 20.8 and 10.4 at the same time in his career.”

Is Sid crazy, or is Love better than KG was in his prime? Cast your vote below.

 

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by | January 14, 2012 · 4:58 pm

Buzz Kill (Wolves 87, Hornets 80)

An ugly win


The Wolves eked out an 87-80 win Friday night over the Hornets. There were no two ways about this one: it was either going to be a much-needed win or a bad loss against an already sub-par Hornets team whose best player, Eric Gordon, was out with an injury.

The Wolves were shorthanded. J.J. Barea and Michael Beasley stayed in Minneapolis. Martell Webster won’t be available for a few weeks. Or a few months. Or maybe never. Any could be true. Martell might not even know. Adelman leaned heavily on Ridnour at the two (not ideal), Johnson at the three (bad), and Rubio at the point (good). Rubio started (good) and played 44 minutes (good). Johnson played 34 minutes and Tolliver and Williams only 16 apiece (bad)

The victory was ugly. No one could get shots. Rubio served them on a silver platter. Teammates sometimes converted, often didn’t. His 9 assists should’ve been closer to 20. Johnson shot 1-8 from distance. Darko couldn’t catch. The Wolves won’t win many playing like this.

Love got to the line 18 times–the same number of attempts as the entire Nola squad. He made 17. His final line read 34 & 17. Yawn.

Love’s production is appreciated, don’t get me wrong. But against the Hornets, his numb#rs were lower-quality than in his other big games earlier in the season. He looked tired. He wasn’t closing out on D. He won’t get 18 throws every game.

Adelman needs to keep him fresh. Incorporating Williams and Tolliver and Randolph more would be a starting place. They play power forward too.

The takeaway is simple: no Rubio, no win. Love would’ve had about the same line with or without him. But no one else would’ve been able to get buckets. Like last season, after Beasley hurt his ankle. Adelman not only played Ricky a lot, he started him. That’s progress.

Let’s hope he tries to build on that progress tonight in Atlanta. Take baby steps.

Distributing Johnson’s minutes between Tolliver and Williams would be a start.

Or get really wild and crazy. Give 12 or 13 of Darko’s minutes to Randolph. He’s way better.

It’s staggering how much better we are when Randolph and Tolliver are on the floor and how much worse we are when Darko and Johnson are on the floor.

Hit us up in the comments.

Until next time.

Season Record: 4-7

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by | · 3:58 pm

FREE DERRICK WILLIAMS!

Photo by Jean Pieri, Pioneer Press

Derrick Williams’ grade so far for the 2011/12 season could only be marked “INCOMPLETE.”

Williams has had his ups and downs this season, and it isn’t clear where Adelman is going to play him. Williams is averaging 14.3 pts/36 mins and 8 rebs/36 mins on the season and his 14.33 PER is 5th on the Wolves if you don’t count J.J. Barea, who has played only 5 games. Williams has great chemistry with Ricky Rubio and is a strong, surprisingly physical, defender, especially when paired with Kevin Love and Anthony Tolliver, which was on display when the Wolves trounced the Wizards last week.

But Williams has struggled the last two games, scoring just 5 and 4 points against Chicago and New Orleans on a combined 2-11 (18%) shooting, after three encouraging performances against Cleveland, Washington, and Toronto in which he scored 12, 14, and 13 on 42% from the floor. He has been noticeably less confident the last few games, leading Adelman to cut his minutes to 22 against the Bulls and 16 against Nola (compared to an average of 28 minutes in the previous three tilts), a vicious cycle that causes Williams to press when he gets in the game, which makes him play worse, which makes Adelman give him even less PT.

If he’s going to find his niche on this team, D-Will needs consistent minutes, in long-ish stretches where he can get into a flow and not have to be looking over his shoulder at the scorer’s table. Adelman himself says he’s looking for more minutes for Williams. With K-Love doing work but getting gassed down the stretch last night against the Hornets, Adelman should give Love a bit more rest and work Williams back into the rotation tonight in the second game of a back-to-back on the road, against the Al Horford-less Hawks. Alternatively, Rick could at least spot him Wes Johnson’s minutes at the three–Wes has done nothing to address the longstanding concerns about his game.

FREE DERRICK WILLIAMS!

UPDATE (Sunday, January 15, 2011, 1:03 PM ET): Williams played only 8 minutes in Saturday night’s heartbreaker against the Hawks, scoring 2 pts on 1-4 from the floor. Chin up, D-Thrill!

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